Topics: Emissions Reduction Fund, Renewable Energy Target, ozone and synthetic greenhouse gas reductions, Carmichael mine
You mentioned that there was a downgrade of the BAU…
…there will be a revised adjustment put out before Paris.
Could you give us any indication of what…
Hasn't been finished yet.
When do you expect the updated emission projections to be released?
Just before we go to Paris, which is what we said at the start of the year – that when we put out the March projections, there'd be a final set of projections which incorporated the Emissions Reduction Fund, the resolution of the Renewable Energy Target.
I didn’t mention the ALOA element at the time because the landfill hadn't been completed and we'll see what they purchase.
But all of those figures were factored in my mind at the time and they'll prove that we will get below zero. We'll beat our targets.
Sure. And so do you have any understanding of what the proportion of international credits you'll be getting out of the donation from the landfill sector?
Okay. Last question from me and I'll leave it to everyone else.
With the Renewable Energy Target you said there'll be absolutely no basis for reducing the target going forward.
I suppose the level of nervousness amongst investors is around the Government being tempted to intervene if the LGC price were to approach penalty.
From your comments that you made then, I would take it that the Government would be disinclined to intervene.
We have no plans to intervene.
The mechanism is there and gives everybody a chance to have a go at the very significant task of getting to 33,000 gigawatt hours – so that is a challenge.
But in the end, do I think people will get there? Do I think the economy will get there? Yes I do.
The last thing is will there be any release of the analysis? You know how there's a chart associated with when you announced the emission reduction targets for the post-2020 period and there was a bar chart there and it gave a breakdown of the different…
I already have set it out. I think…
Yeah but will there be a further detailed breakdown…
…60, 300, 150, 75, 75,200.
Yeah, because at the moment for example you bundle the safeguard mechanism with the ERF and there's I suppose a question mark about to what extent…
The reason why is because I never want to forecast prices.
Are you worried that the capital strike is continuing though despite the…?
No. You see it's only a couple of months since we've finished the RET negotiations and passed the legislation.
And people rightly invested – rightly wanted to see that the RET was actually legislated. Until something's through the Senate, it's fair to reserve judgement.
Our advice now – both from the Clean Energy Regulator and from direct discussions with firms – is that they're now going through the process of preparing investments and final investment decisions. We've already seen significant ones such as Ararat and we'll see how – and I expect there'll be more announcements over the course of the next 15 months.
Can I just clarify one thing? You talked about the Paris pledges, the INDCs – did you say that it's your estimation – or there is an estimation – that they’ve actually achieved a reduction to 2.7 degrees? When the INDCs already pledged?
Can I clarify two things? You said that you wanted cities to become aggregators. Could you expand on that?
And then also the ozone legislation changes, when are we going to see some detail on that?
Sure. So in terms of the cities, we would love the City of Geelong or the City of Melbourne or the City of Brisbane or for Ballarat or Sydney to aggregate and bid in.
And they don't have to aggregate just their own emissions reductions, they can bring in emissions reductions from – they can work as an aggregator with the private sector.
They could be firms that are doing co-generation or tri-generation in office blocks.
They might have within their precincts industrial establishments.
So this is an open invitation and an active encouragement to cities to act as aggregators and to reduce their emissions but also to reduce the emissions of the participants within.
Now – second question?
Ozone – so there's a conference of relevant parties in Dubai in November.
That's likely to set out a framework for the next round of global ozone reductions – or ozone gas reductions – and in particular a focus on synthetic greenhouse gases.
So once that has been completed – and assuming their success – then we'll be in a position to work with the industry.
And the refrigerants industry has probably I find been close to the most forward looking of any sector in the country.
They want us to come back with a new set of standards to avoid the free rider problem.
And so once we've got standards that flow from the Dubai process we'll set up a legislative process in Australia – and then have final legislation.
But our goal is to make sure that it's operating and well in place – well in place and then operating with effect from well before 2020.
Three sort of related questions to each other. How soon do you expect to decide on Adani's Carmichael Mine?
Do you see your decisions on the Carmichael Mine and Shenhua Watermark project tying into Australia's commitments at all to Paris? And – I'll go with those, okay.
So the first thing is that there's often a misunderstanding.
The Environment Minister in Australia is like a judge. You don't get to choose what is on your docket and you have to make decisions not according to desire or policy.
This is a legal process where you have to make legal decisions which are fully appealable against both the law and against the scientific evidence.
And so it's not a discretion, it's a legal process and it doesn't matter who the Minister of the day is, they have to abide by that law.
The second thing there is, I never foreshadow. We're going through – precisely because it's a legal process, not a policy question – that I never foreshadow individual decisions.
But we're going through that process and in due course there'll be a response once the company's provided all of the relevant material that the Government has sought.
We're not waiting on the Government. The Government is now waiting on the company and I'll make a final assessment on its merits when that comes.
And then the last thing is our forward projections for emissions have, over successive governments, built in whatever was predicted in terms of different types of activity – whether it's industrial, mineral, energy.
And what we're finding is that in reality the actual energy resources extracted have been less than the prediction.
So the Government has to take at its word the firms – and then as things don't eventuate they write them down. So, our business as usual projections continue to drop.
So whatever drops between now and 2020, actually echoes and brings down our task from 2020 to 2030.
Okay, thank you very much.